Some reflection of ideas against hard landing to global new normalcy.
State actor and non state public economic and political powers have distorted the basic capitalist natural law principles leading to 2008 global economic crisis and are still acting the post crisis political manipulations of local economic regulatory institutions at global level like imposing military and economic sanctions and interventions for political purposes and discrimination at national level further distorting the global free competitive capitalistic outlook . any distortion of global free markets produces global economic inequality and skewed distribution of globalization economic benefits breeding grounds for bubbles to deflate following violent reactions from affected nations and non state actors to establish new normalcy . Davos 2015 focused on such global economic inequalities, persistent deflationary conditions in many developed countries in spite quantitative easing and lower interest rates and the growing risks to world economic stability and extremist terrorisms in many parts of world.
Globalised political economy for soft landing to new normalcy needs prevention of violent economic and political bubbles. How? : Through global reengineering of existing political and economic institutions and redefine the national issues, human rights and liberties vis-à-vis states and their instrumentalities and not to act repugnant to the natural laws of social development. If so, the national behavior of nation-states to globalization is tending to once again for hard landing of new political and economic new normal?
The basic principle of capitalism is the maximization of profit for the capital invested and that there should be equality among the capitalists to share the national profit through dividends and interest rates and further there should be free competition among all the capitalists to exit and entry in to new business so as to maximize his prorate share in profit and revenue and state is equally a partner to share the total profits as a provider of institutional infrastructure and guarantor of law of contract and law and order and fair game of the capitalism. Now does this basic principle not apply to globalization and global capitalism? If not how does the capitalist principle as a natural law outgrowth operate on global scale? And if obstructed by distortive forces how it reestablishes itself and its economic and political consequences on nation states and non state actors and institutions and what lessons we gathers from history?
While acknowledging the positive effects of American shale oil technology in bringing the enhanced global competition and weakening the monopolies, cartels in oil and energy sector hugely redistributing the economic benefits to global population and relieving the global consumers from burdens of global imperfect market prices, the same positive effects of technology in other sectors in less developed economies like in Africa, Latin America, parts of Asia is possible provided global political and economic infrastructure for the maintenance of global operation of basic principles of capitalist spirit is established: where same capital investment may yield more profit and in turn attract more investments yielding developmental benefits to its local populations tending to global economic equality among the capitals and labor and consumer public. In the absence of such global infrastructure, any technological innovations having economic effects if backed by political force/monopolized or similar economic power of any dominant nation state through discriminatory means will aggravate global economic inequality though appropriator price fixations invisibly transferring economic rights and properties of other nation state and their citizens without any effective remedy. It promotes feelings of oppression to the affected and may be manifested in political reactions in different forms. It may lead to promotion of free market disruptive political action from other nation states to protective discrimination leading to further aggravation disruption of free markets and imperfect global prices distorting of global free markets. It may result, other factors assumed as constant, in contraction of production and export markets aggravating the inflation or deflationary conditions and stimulating political distrust between politicians and public sometimes manifested in political and military extremisms and adventurisms. Such acts of dominance may act as a new source of frictions of already fragile global political and economic balance of power equation situations. due to such acts and omissions of global nation state and non state actors in negative directions there is already an accumulated contractions of global markets, deflationary trends in developed countries, contraction of investment climates due to falling rates of profits in spite of near zero lower interest rates, declining growth rates on one side and increasing sovereign public and private debts burdens, on the other side as a breeding ground for new normal as highlighted in davos sessions. This pent up heat may burst in soft or hard landing to new normalcy. Therefore we need to prevent the hard landing before new normal is established on global economic and political fronts for the continued benefits of globalization of science and technology and economic globalization.
The Davos meeting 2015 has highlighted some of such global economic issues plaguing the world economy. They have no agenda to discuss the political implications of such economic issues. They have highlighted the falling global growth outlook and china, persistent trend of deflation of developed economies and monetary policies of FED, ECB,BOJ intervening with interest rates and Q.E(money supply) through asset purchase, increasing global economic disparities among the countries and among the economic classes, terrorism in general terms, and the need for global economic stability,climatic effects of economic actors etc.
But one of the basic flaws of recent economic studies is too much focus on national sovereign regulatory functions on global economic factors to maximize their own economic benefits without paying adequate attention on effects of global political and economic infrastructure for furthering of capitalistic basic instinctual drives on global scale for global good. There is no representation on behalf of economic and political globalization and it is silently being passed over and remaining ex parte. It is a matter of fact that recent two centuries of technological innovations/ revolutions have transformed the globalization of economies in to rising autonomous political nation’s states and the nations states in turn politically interfered in negative directions against the rising tide globalization led to “great hard landings” to establish new economic and political normalcy. Looked from the past, it happened to break the neck of Persian arrogance against Greeks through Alexander ,followed by breakneck of arrogance of Romans through hordes of Hun, Goth, Saxons overrunning it followed by hordes of Muslim ,Spanish by British and British by American dominated UN Security council and world reserve dollar hard landing each followed by new economic political normalcy, all tending to individual dignity, national equality and political democracy, freedom from discrimination, justice, equity and good conscience and equality through constitutional rule of law all such institutions to realize the rational animal spirits for perfection of ones personality and happiness through assured division of labor and pay for the labor and capital. Recent aftermath economic and political trends reveals each nation state/blocks trying to maximize their own national interests either through their own dominant regulatory financial and economic institutions in the forms of fixing the interest rates, prices, money supply, fixing the exchange value of their own currency ,discriminatory tariffs, quotas, taxes vis-à-vis other countries all having effects of global basic capitalist markets distortions by monopolistic prices incomes and outputs and employments not allowing basic capitalist principles to operate on global scale for global welfare through Adams invisible hand , in effect, reducing the macro level overall global efficiency of markets, output and growth prospects in spite of existence of UN institutions and its allied WTO, world Bank, IMF. In such global political scenario, every political and non political actor will try to minimize his chances of becoming a victim of global market burst of bubbles and by product political forces and maximize his chances of survival of political and economic manipulations before reestablishment of new economic and political normal. who will be the ultimate victim will depend upon the last minute fact situations like that happened in all incidents that happened in history.
The weak points that may ignite hard pressing global new norm appear to be within Europe unless any other event press otherwise, and it is being screwed between east and west and appears to be at its weakest point from continued economic decline and stagnation, with fragile non-sovereign union demands to austerity from its debtor national members to bridge the contractual obligation to ECB,EU obligations, reassertion of national political feelings of alien control and imposition of burdens and indignities on one side(Greek elections results in yesterday polling) ,and from political bullying of dominant Russian nationalist rebels against Ukrainian worn-out sovereignty over its territorial integrity to the disenchantment and differences within European union to resolve the nationality and sovereignty issues involved in Ukraine conflict, and similar issues likely to arise within it point to the likely fall of Euro currency, EU experiment, and its cascading global economic fallout and likely burst of bubble and turmoil may lead to scramble for survival to new economic political normal.
In fact there is a generalized genuine feeling of several left out national minorities of different elements now in some countries in violent resistance against alleged oppression of other national majorities controlling state instruments, be it in Iraq,syria,Egypt,Libya,afganistan,spain,turkey,parts of india and china,Russia,UK and USA,several African and Latin American countries . This is an outgrowth of spread of globalization and assertion of greater recognition to human rights and protections of freedoms and civil liberties and needs review of existing political and other institutions all over the world. Such movement characterized as global terrorist movements whether Islamic or otherwise when extremist elements take the movement in to their hands and draw their life breath from such feelings of national or ethnic and racial oppression from main stream national law alienations. Such feelings of hatred against some nations may also arise when the other nations or nationalities feel no effective legal remedy in international law to protect themselves from aggressor. The experiments of mogul emperor AKBER in India against Muslim fundamentalism is worth study in the context. The Russian aggression and later US intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq Libya with no legal remedy to civilians in international law as well as in UN institutions point the growing gulf between rising tide of human rights awareness and existing global political institutions resulting in national hatred and feelings of global alienation breathing life to extremist elements espousing violent means which only furthers the disruption of globalization of capitalistic process and its benefits to global economic and political equality. Seeking recognition for national cohesion, like Jews and Palestine ,Sunni or shia linguistic nations and national religious or other minorities is a natural law element not to be brushed aside but only subject to rule of uniform non discriminatory law and allegiance to peace and law and obedience to the globalization of technological benefits. Whether this will be hard landing or soft depend on how the global political and economic actors will react and resolve to re-establishing capable globalised political and economic institutional infrastructure, and how they redefining the human rights and protection of civil liberties vis-à-vis states and their instrumentalities in the face present globalization , consistent with globalization of capitalism, global division of labor and employments, equitable pay to labor and capital and enforced as a last resort through UN institutions.